The 2022 election is what we thought it was
Analysis by Chris Cillizza, CNN Editor-at-largeUpdated: Fri, 21 Oct 2022 22:40:22 GMTSource: CNNA new analysis of the 2022 political landscape suggests that the winds are blowing behind the Republican
Analysis by Chris Cillizza, CNN Editor-at-largeUpdated: Fri, 21 Oct 2022 22:40:22 GMT
Source: CNN
A new analysis of the 2022 political landscape suggests that the winds are blowing behind the Republicans' backs with just over two weeks left before the midterm elections.
"Republicans have closed the gap on the national generic ballot after Democrats held the lead for the last two months," Nathan Gonzales writes in Inside Elections, a nonpartisan campaign tipsheet. "And a GOP edge is developing in a disproportionate number of individual competitive races. Republicans have always been favorites to regain the House majority -- the uncertainty has only been about the margin."
In Inside Elections' latest House race ratings, a total of 13 races shifted in the Republicans' direction, compared to eight for the Democrats. And among the most competitive House contests (rated as "toss-ups" or tilting towards one party), nine moved in the Republicans' favor -- three times the number that moved towards the Democrats.
Inside Elections also upped the ceiling on Republican gains -- projecting the likeliest outcome of the midterms as the GOP netting somewhere between eight and 25 House seats. "If late-deciding voters break against Democrats or if Democratic enthusiasm dips a bit, Republicans could see larger gains," Gonzales writes.
Beyond the big-picture prediction, what's most interesting is the geographic location of the races that are moving in Republicans' direction. Several are clustered in the Northeast, which has become increasingly inhospitable to the party in recent elections -- particularly after the emergence of Donald Trump as its leading figure.
Of the nine most competitive districts that moved in favor of the Republicans, six of them -- New Jersey's 7th, New York's 3rd, 17th, 18th and 19th, and Rhode Island's 2nd -- are in the Northeast, suggesting a strength in the region that hasn't been seen for the party in recent years.
Gonzales warns that even small changes in the national environment in these final weeks can make a big difference in how big an election this will be for Republicans.
The Point: After almost two years of campaigning, this election is turning out to be what we thought it would be -- a good one for Republicans.
