"I love Current sunspot cycle activity - Solar Cycle 25; Space weather, solar storm and geomagnetic conditions, and radio propagation forecasts"

2022-08-20 16:42:43

Great News: Major Renovations Coming!We are currently working on major renovations to this website.If you have specific requests for new content, and/or changes, please send us your feedback.To send us feedback, please send an email to Tomas, NW7US, at the following email address: Ways to help keep this website on the air for everyone: How to Help Us With Your SupportSunSpotWatch.comRadio Propagation : Space Weather : Sunspot Cycle Informationa live reference resource site for solar and geomagnetic data and imagesPlease help:Please 'LIKE' this page: Google+ Please share this page: Follow @hfradiospacewx on TwitterFollow @NW7US on Twitter+Gain the on-air edge: This article explains how the ANTENNA is the key! -> Read this introduction to Antenna ModelingSTEREO 3DX-ray Conditions (Flares) 5-min.X-ray Conditions (Flares) 1-min.Geomagnetic Conditions (Kp)Satellite Environment Plot:Main Propagation Menu:+ Aurora ResourcesHow-To Articles:- Is HF Propagation Reciprocal?- De-mystifying HF Radio Propagation and ModelingCheck out the ACE-HF propagation software - the latest is version 2.05. ACE-HF is propagation forecasting and modeling for Amateur Radio as well as for Shortwave radio Listening and general HF operation. This software is even used by the military and other clients around the world. This software is developed and maintained by the same engineers that keep VOACAP up-to-date. As a result, this software is the most accurate user interface integrated with VOACAP. CHECK IT OUT, TODAY. This software is the most accurate modeling software available, and is endorsed by NW7US. Read the details to find out why.Main Site Menu:- Main NW7US Page- About NW7US- About Amateur Radio- Feedback - Contact NW7USPlease help me keep this site running:This website is kept alive by Tomas (NW7US), out of "spare change" (which there's not always enough of), and, by the kind, helpful people who visit this website. Would you like to help me keep this site running 24/7? If you are able to help me keep this website up and running, please: help me keep this site running for everyone... click on this donation button:There are other ways that you can help me keep this site up and running. Here are a few other ways:+ Make a purchase through the HFRadio.org affiliation with Amazon.com. Other links of interest:- PropNET - live propagation studies- Shortwave Radio Resource Center- Shortwave Broadcasting SearchComments? Please use the feedback form. I look forward to hearing your comments.NW7US Update to CQ Magazine Last Minute ForecastUpdated: 20-Aug-2022 UTCDay-to-Day Conditions Expected for August 2022Propagation IndexDays(4)(3)(2)(1)Above Normal:1-6,12-16,21-26,28-31AABCHigh Normal:9-11,19,27ABCC-DLow Normal:7,18,20BC-BC-DD-EBelow Normal:8,17CC-DD-EEDisturbed:No daysC-DDEETo use this chart, please refer to my Propagation Column in CQ Magazine.Warnings/Alerts issued in the last 24 hours, if any:(Key: NOAA Scales)[ live aurora display ][ auroral power maps ][ d-layer conditions ][ latest solar images 1 ][ latest solar images 2 ][ latest solar images 3 ][ active solar regions ][ current solar region image ][ What is a flare and its class? ]Recent Space Environment Reports:+ Reports of Solar & Geophysical Activity + Solar & Geophysical Activity SummariesFrom the Space Environment Center:Solar X-ray Flux+ A 3 day plot of 5-minute solar X-ray flux values measured on the GOES 8 and 10 satellites.+ A 6-hour 1-min Solar X-ray Flux plotSatellite Environment Plot[ Proton Flux ] [Electron Flux ][ GEOS Hp ] [ Estimated Kp ]Additional Resources+ SpaceW.com Aurora Network + D-Layer Absorption Conditions/Predictions+ 160 Meter Propagation Forecast+ Solar Physics Department of the Royal Observatory of Belgium, the official keepers of sunspot data.Solar Activity ForecastThe Forecast of Solar Activity as well as Geomagnetic ActivityProbability of Flares and Proton EventsEVENT(Flare/Proton)0-24 hrs24-48 hrsM-class40%40%X-class10%10%Proton10%10%Geomagnetic Activity ProbabilitiesMiddle latitudesHigh latitudes0-24 hrs24-48 hrs0-24 hrs24-48 hrsActive10%10%10%10%Minor Storm10%10%10%10%Major-severe Storm10%10%10%10%Solar Sunspot Cycle 24 ProgressDo you want the latest solar conditions sent to you as an RSS feed? Click: You will need a newsreader for RSS/XML.(Use http://hfradio.org/propsupport/prop.rss as your RSS channel url) This page was rendered on 20-Aug-22 2039 UTC.This page was first created as HFRadio.org in the mid 1990s, and morphed here in 1998, by Tomas David Hood (NW7US)Current Sunspot Cycle 25 Activity ~ Space Weather ~ Shortwave Radio Propagation[ How you can help this website ] Sun Spots: 74 as of 08/19/2022 :: 10.7-cm Flux: 105 SFU(SFU=Solar Flux Units) 30 Minutes of Dazzling Sun! Ultra-high Definition 4k ViewAn Intimate View of the Sun, Every Day of 2015 (Year 6 of SDO) UHD 4kWatch Five Very Intense X-class X-ray Flares Erupt, Back-to-back!(From the largest sunspot region in 20+ years...)Check out the X2.7 X-ray Flare (May 5 2015) - 'Biggest' of 2015, so farSee highlights of the last five years of the Sun, as seen by SDOThe Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) Latest Solar ImagesClick on an image for full-sized view Map, Above: Conditions in the D region of the ionosphere have a dramatic effect on high frequency (HF) communications and low frequency (LF) navigation systems. The global D Region Absorption Predictions (D-RAP) depicts the D region at high latitudes where it is driven by particles as well as low latitudes, where photons cause the prompt changes.Note: At times, images may appear broken or missing, when SDO is working on the AIA/HMI instruments.Planetary A-index (Ap): 20 | Planetary K-index (Kp): 1Solar Wind: 518 km/s at 7.0 protons/cm3, Bz is -5.0 nT(Aug 20, 2022 at 2024 UT)X-ray Solar Flares:6h hi [M1.6][0414Z 08/19] 24h hi [M1.6][0414Z 08/19]Background X-ray Level, Last Six Days :: :: :: :: :: :: Check out the current Aurora Oval and activity.What is the difference between the CB and Amateur Radio Services, in the USA? Here are some thoughts on the portrayal of the Amateur Radio Service by the Hit TV Series, NCIS, and a clarification of the difference between CB radio and ham radio.(Skip to timecode 1:33 to bypass the introductory chat and talk about the headset microphone.)Here is a video introduction to shortwave / HF amateur radio -- what is it that we amateur radio oprators listen to? If you have not yet been introduced to this world, this is a very basic introduction.If you are using software utilities such as Ace-HF, that require a "smoothed" sunspot number(Referred to as the SSN), or, the smoothed 10.7-cm Radio Flux Index,use the following predicted values in this following table:Predicted SMOOTHED Sunspot Number And Radio Flux ValuesWith Expected RangesYR/MOSmoothed Sunspot NumberPredicted/High/LowSmoothed 10.7 cm Radio FluxPredicted/High/LowTo understand more about the Maximum Usable Frequencies, and related science, please read the MUF Basics Page.Global HF Propagation ConditionsGlobal HF Propagation Conditions for 0400Z on 05 May, 2021High Latitude: NormalMiddle Latitude: NormalLow Latitude: NormalGeomagnetic Latitude Ranges:High: 60-90 degreesMiddle: 20-60 degreesLow: 0-20 degreesAt 0805 UTC, on 9 August 2011, a strong magnitude X6.9 X-ray flare -- the strongest yet in this current solar cycle (Cycle 24) -- erupted on the northwestern solar limb. Here is a HD Movie of the event:Videos of Interest - Space Weather, Solar Dynamics Observatory, STEREO, and more... from the NW7US YouTube Channel. (Click on the small image to launch the video...)Video: Voyager Finds Magnetic Foam at Solar Systems EdgeVideo: Zoom View of Prominence Eruption and X-Ray Flare - M2.5 Magnitude - June 7 2011Video: X-Ray Flare, Coronal Mass Ejection, Proton Storm - M2.5 Magnitude - June 7 2011 (Close-up of the video, above)Video: Stunning Close-up View of M3 X-Ray Flare 24 February 2011Video: On How NCIS TV Show Maligned Amateur Radio Service (Full UHD Version) What's the difference between CB and amateur (ham) radio?Video: June 2011 20-meter (14-Mhz) JT65A Coverage Map of NW7US Radio SignalThe NW7US Current Sunspot and Geophysical Activity ReportThe observations, prognastications, and comments by NW7USNW7US is Tomas David Hood, Propagation and Space Weather Columnistfor CQ CommunicationsMore about Background X-raysThe hard X-ray energy present from the wavelengths of 1 to 8 Angstroms provide the most effective ionizing energy throughout all of the ionospheric layers in our atmosphere. The GEOS satellites measure these wavelengths and the resulting measurements are reported as the "background X-ray level" throughout the day. A daily average is reported, as well.Just like X-ray flares, the background hard X-ray level is measured in watts per square meter (W/m2), reported using the categories, A, B, C, M, and X. These letters are multipliers; each class has a peak flux ten times greater than the preceding one. Within a class there is a linear scale from 1 to 9.If one records the daily background X-ray levels for the course of a sunspot cycle, one would discover that the background X-ray levels remained at the A class level during the sunspot cycle minumum. During the rise and fall of a solar cycle, the background X-ray energy levels remained mostly in the B range. During peak solar cycle periods, the background energy reached the C and sometimes even M levels.Armed with this information, can we discover any clues as to the current status of Sunspot Cycle 24? Below is a graph plotting the background hard X-ray energy reported by the GEOS satellites since the end of Sunspot Cycle 22. Clearly, we see a noticeable rise in Cycle 24 activity. We're seeing the energy mostly in the B level more often, supporting the view that Cycle 24 is alive and moving along toward an eventual sunspot cycle peak in several years.Overall, the monthly average background 'hard' X-ray level is rising (as seen by the following plot), showing a change from deep solar cycle minimum. We are certainly in the rising phase of Sunspot Cycle 24. While it has been a slow up-tick over the last eighteen months, I expect to see a more rapid rise during mid to late 2011.Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic ActivityCovering the period: 08 - 14 August 2022 Solar activity was very low with B-class flare activity on 08-10 Aug. Solar activity increased to low levels with C-class flare activity observed on 11-14 Aug. Regions 3076 (N15, L=61, class/area=Dao/170 on 13 Aug) and 3079 (S11, L=77, class/area=Cai/130 on 14 Aug) were responsible for the majority of C-class flare activity throughout the period. At 14/1235 UTC, a long-duration C2 flare and filament eruption were observed from Region 3076. Associated Type-II radio emissions estimated a shock velocity of 629 km/s. The associated CME was first seen in LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 14/1248 UTC and is expected to impact Earth on 17 Aug. No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit persisted at high levels throughout the period. Geomagnetic field activity reached G1 (Minor) storm levels on 08 Aug, and active levels on 09 and 11 Aug, due to positive polarity CH HSS influences. Quiet to unsettled conditions prevailed on 10 and 12-14 Aug. Monthly and smoothed sunspot number - The monthly mean sunspot number (blue) and 13-month smoothed monthly sunspot number (red) for the last five cycles. You can see that this current cycle, Cycle 24, is a weak cycle, compared to the last few.(Click to see actual size)Daily and monthly sunspot number (last 13 years)Daily sunspot number (yellow), monthly mean sunspot number (blue), smoothed monthly sunspot number (red) for the last 13 years and 12-month ahead predictions of the monthly smoothed sunspot number:SC (red dots) : prediction method based on an interpolation of Waldmeier's standard curves; It is only based on the sunspot number series.CM (red dashes) : method (from K. Denkmayr and P. Cugnon) combining a regression technique applied to the sunspot number series with the aa geomagnetic index used as a precursor (improved predictions during the minimum phase between solar cycles).(Click to see actual size)What is 'Space Weather'? Click on these two information slides to view them in full size:View of numbered sunspot regions and plages (if any)Source: http://www.solarmonitor.org/.(Click for large view)Active sunspot regions, and plages, identified by SIDCSTEREO IMAGESWhat is comingCurrent ViewWhat was...Real Time Solor Wind and Aurora:On 2022 Aug 20 2035Z: Bz: -4.8 nTBx: -1.3 nT | By: -5.7 nT | Total: 7.5 nTMost recent satellite polar pass:Centered on // : UTCAurora Activity Level was at UTCvisit noaa for latest.This is a video of the simulation from May 27-28, 2011, showingthe Geomagnetic disturbance caused by the solar windOutlook:(valid from 1230UT, 20 Aug 2022 until 22 Aug 2022)20 Aug 2022 10.7-cm Flux: 099 / Ap: 02121 Aug 2022 10.7-cm Flux: 097 / Ap: 02622 Aug 2022 10.7-cm Flux: 093 / Ap: 017Forecast:Solar Flares:C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)Geo-Disturbance:Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)Solar Proton Event:QuietComment from the SIDC (RWC Belgium): Solar flaring activity was at low levels. The largest flare was a C6.7 flare, associated with NOAA AR 3078, peaking on August 19 at 20:31 UT. The flare was also associated with a Type II radio signature. NOAA AR 3078 has begun to gradually decay. NOAA AR3081 was stable and produced low level C-class flaring, The two remaining regions, NOAA AR 3082 and 3084, both decayed and were quiet. Solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels, with C-class flares likely, and a remaining chance for M-class flares. (Comments issued on 20 Aug 2022, 1236UT)Space Weather and Propagation ForecastPrepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, and the Space Weather Prediction CenterThree Day Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity(as of 2200Z on 07 Dec 2014) Solar Forecast:Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Dec, 09 Dec, 10 Dec). Geomagnetic Forecast:The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (08 Dec), quiet to active levels on day two (09 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (10 Dec). Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 15 August - 10 September 2022 Solar activity is expected to be predominately low with C-class flare activity and a chance for isolated M-class flare activity throughout the outlook period. No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 15, 18-24 Aug, and 04-10 Sep. Normal to moderate flux levels are expected throughout the remainder of the outlook period. Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 17-18 Aug due to a combination of negative polarity CH HSS influences and the anticipated arrival of the 14 Aug CME. Active conditions are predicted on 19-20 Aug due to continued negative polarity CH HSS influences. Active conditions are likely on 27 Aug due to negative polarity CH HSS influence. G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagentic storms are possible on 03-04 Aug, with G1 storms possible on 05 Aug, due to positive polarity CH HSS effects. Real-time foF2 map from IPS (Ionospheric Prediction Service), Australian Space Weather AgencySpace Weather + Ham Radio ResourcesClick on image toview larger versionsThe following imagesare from SOHOPlease helpkeep this siterunning for everyone:NW7US on FBNW7USCheck out this amazing NASA SDO (Solar Dynamics Observatory) videoshowing plasma rain on the Sun!Check out this amazing NASA SDO (Solar Dynamics Observatory) videoshowing a prominence the Sun:Don't forget to join the Space Weather and Radio Propagation Facebook Page.Summary & Medium Range ForecastsPropagation Forecast BulletinsWeekly Summary and 27-Day Forecast27-Day 10.7 cm, Ap, and Max Kp OutlookAD5Q's (Quack's) ForecastARRL Propagation ResourcesWilliam Hepburn's VHF/UHF Tropospheric Ducting Forecast - Forecast of ducts providing distant VHF/UHF propagation.Do you want this space weather information on your website? Pick one of these 'banners':Here are examples of this space weather info for your website:For the example, above, use the following code:For the example, above, use the following code:For the example, above, use the following code:Additional Views of the SunBe sure to check the Date shown in each photo - is it today's date?(click to enlarge)Check out these articles:HOW-TO: How do you make your HF ham station work more efficiently? The ANTENNA is the key! - introduction to Antenna ModelingHOW-TO: Is HF Propagation Reciprocal?HOW-TO: De-mystifying HF Radio Propagation and ModelingREVIEW: An Amateur Radio Operator's Review of ACE-HF PRO version 2.05REVIEW: A Shortwave Listening (SWLing) Review of ACE-HF PRO version 2.05HOW-TO: Noise and Radio Signal Effectiveness; Modeling in ACE-HF Pro version 2.05Data and images courtesy of IPS Australia, NOAA, NASA, SWPC, SIDCLayout, analysis, commentary, and certain forecasts and content isCopyright, 2021, Tomas David Hood (NW7US), all rights reserved.No part, except for the space weather 'banners', may be copied without express permission.Last Update: December 20, 2021